September 2012 Issue

    INSIGHT

       
       
       Island lot sales improving
        by Patrick Anderson, Publisher


    In June 2010 we reported on glut of residential lot inventory in Glynn County, and also predicted that a key indicator of full
    blown real estate recovery would be a resurgence in residential lot sales. The logic goes like this: When housing inventory
    returns to a normal balance and prices recover sufficiently, new inventory will needed to fill the pipeline. Investors will
    purchase lots again, build spec homes, and offer them at a profit.

    In the two years since that report, the inventory glut has subsided slightly on the Mainland, and quite dramatically on the
    Islands. But it's much too soon to characterize this as anything resembling a full blown recovery.

    Some of the improvement is simply the
    realization by developers that they should
    pull inventory off the market to correct some
    of the imbalance between inventory and
    sales. There is also the sobering reality that
    lots must be discounted well below their
    peak values in order to have a chance at
    selling. Those factors account for some of
    the county-wide recovery in annual units
    sold from 65 trailing June 2010, to 109 in
    the most recent 12 months.

    It's perplexing, though, to see almost all
    the recovery happening on the Islands. YSL
    (Years Supply of Listings) dropped from
    7.14 to 6.00 on the Mainland. But on the
    Islands, the YSL fell from 16.73 to 4.46!

    Trailing 12 Months Unit Sales rose from
    50 to 55 on the Mainland, a modest 10%
    increase over the two year + period. But
    the Islands rose from 15 lot sales to 54 over the same period, a whopping 260% increase.

    I've long held a suspicion that, since the Islands market started declining earlier than the Mainland at the beginning of the real
    estate crash, the Islands might be the first area to recover. We may be seeing some of that in the statistics above, or maybe it's
    just wishful thinking since my bread is buttered on St. Simons Island.













    Below are links to current lot listings in the local MLS:  

    330 Mainland Lots (organized by Area, then List Price)
    Copy and paste the following into a NEW browser window:
    http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=414&i=436600&k=wVJ8o

    241 Island Lots (organized by Area, then List Price)
    Copy and paste the following into a NEW browser window:
    http://www.navicamls.net/displays/?n=414&i=436601&k=R8yR73
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