February 2012 Issue INSIGHT Gerhardt reports reveal Glynn Co. real estate trends by Patrick Anderson, Publisher Glynn County Chief Appraiser Bobby Gerhardt has released a feast of Glynn County statistical reports that will satisfy the hungriest appetite for real estate data. I myself have purged several times and still not digested all the information. So I present this to you as an all-you-can-eat buffet ... nibble at your leisure. The narrative below is from Mr. Gerhardt himself as recently presented to a group of community leaders particularly interested in how quickly our tax digest is shrinking. The reports themselves are linked within the text below when mentioned.
Economic Roundtable Participants: Since real estate values reflect the economic health of an area, community leaders should possess the latest information on such values. Enclosed are several studies the author completes each year to better advise Glynn County assessors, commissioners and administrators as to how the county’s next ad valorem tax digest may change. The results of these studies should also assist you in knowing the latest local trends. Pages 1-50 are graphical analyses of Multiple Listing Service (MLS) sales for the past seven (7) years in Glynn County subdivided into three sections: Single-Family Residences, Condominiums/Town Homes and Residential Lots. Page 51 is a summary of all (MLS & non-MLS) home sales on Sea Island for the past twelve (12) years, while Page 52 is the same study for St. Simons Island. The author cautions the reader to view all of the foregoing results with a jaundiced eye though. While each study’s combined result may depict a reasonable overview of the marketplace, their individual yearly percentage changes cannot be relied upon exclusively. Portions of these annual percentage changes occur because: • Real estate is a non-homogenous product. No two properties are exactly alike due to varying features such as quality of construction, design, appeal and among other things, location, ie. oceanfront, interior, lakefront, riverfront, marsh, etc. Part of a price difference in properties from year to year may be due to these factors. • Economics of Size Principle. A larger home, condominium or lot will generally sell for less per square foot than a smaller counterpart, all other things equal. Part of a price differential from year to year may be due to this principle. • Mixture of sales. One year may have more higher- priced homes selling than another year and for whatever reason, vice versa. This possibility could distort the percentage change from year to year. • Inflation/Deflation. The purchasing power of money varies over time thus potentially altering a portion of the price changes. The best alternative to overcome most of these inherent deficiencies in the foregoing studies is Page 53. This is an updated summary of all Sea Island and St. Simons Island home sales for the past decade with the most recent five (5) years’ results noted. It is based upon the sale/resale method (the same as the Case-Shiller Home Price Indices) with the percentage difference between a home’s original sale and its subsequent resale. The resulting percentage difference in price is distributed equally for each month between the two dates, thus it is being reported on a straight-line basis. An average monthly percentage is then calculated based upon the number of observations in each month, with the final result being an average annual net percentage change for a given year. It is a continuous home price study because observations based upon a recent sale/resale result added to the study could affect an earlier annual result. The annual results in the earlier years are generally more reliable than their counterparts in the latter years due to the former’s greater number of observations. With this caveat noted, the continuous home price study is still the best indication of past home price changes, particularly when there is a greater number of sales/resales. The last two pages are a Summary of Assessment Administration in Glynn County and its Appeal Process. You are invited to further your knowledge of local real estate values by visiting Glynn County’s public website from which this information was extracted. May we all rejoice that it is 2012! Robert H. Gerhardt, MAI, SREA Chief Appraiser, Glynn County .................................................................................................................................................................................................
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